Michigan Leading Economic Indicator (MI-LEI) for August 2009


    The Grand Rapids Business Journal/e-forecasting.com MI Leading Economic Indicator, Michigan’s early bird of economic activity, increased in August 2009 to a reading of 96.9, where 2000 is set equal to 100.

    The private forecasting service said the composite Michigan index of state leading indicators, which is produced jointly with Crain’s Detroit Business, went up 0.4 percent in August after an increase of 0.4 percent in July. This is the first time that consecutive months have been positive since June of 2007, showing good signs for future months.

    Six of the 10 components that make up Michigan’s Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in August: Unemployment Claims, Weekly Hours in Manufacturing, Building Permits, Exports of Manufactures, Stock Prices (National) and Interest Rate Spread.

    Four of the 10 components had a negative contribution to Michigan’s Leading Indicator in August: New Orders (Detroit Business), Consumer Expectations (Regional), Productivity Barometer (Detroit Business) and Employment Barometer.

    Looking at its six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, Michigan’s Leading Indicator went down by an annual rate of 5.3 percent in August, after a decline of 8.1 percent in July. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 2.1 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity. 

    Evangelos Simos is chief economist of the consulting and research firm Infometrica Inc. He may be reached at eosimos@inometrica.com.      

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